Saturday, November 29, 2014

Deduction #8



My interests have been piqued, and I'm excited to present a new deduction for you all.

First, a few more obvious things:
  • College student, age consistent with what appears to be my primary demographic
  • Lives in North America (light sockets are wonderful things)
  • Dorm resident (I have eyes)
Statistically speaking, our student is a freshman (dorm resident), but I think this hypothesis is supported by their general lack of "stuff," as well as the presence of brand-new 120 page notebooks.

Using time-stamps on the picture and the submission website, I can be reasonably certain that our subject resides in the Eastern Time Zone. So far, the area that appears most likely (but only slightly) is near Virginia, as the company whose name appears on the purple and white item on the desk has their headquarters there.

It appears our subject is also interested in Sociology or is at least enrolled in a class on the subject. It's hard to Google the name "Ritzer," without finding the associated books, one of which is "Essentials of Sociology," which this one appears to be. Based on the complexity of the material, I'd say the book is consistent with our freshman theory.

Let's talk about the chargers in the power strip. There's an apple charger there, which I believe is likely to belong to someone other than the subject of the picture, as the picture itself was taken with an Android Phone (metadata) and the laptop appears to be a windows machine.

Okay, time for the desk. Right-handed, tea-not-coffee, weirdness with the green lightbulb in the desk lamp. Subject went out for breakfast prior to taking the picture (breakfast sandwhich?). Right-handed based on mouse and fork. I am interested in the choice of the large mouse-pad, which suggests our subject utilizes the computer for a task for which precise mouse-movement is useful (Photoshop, online gaming, etc.). Key ring has three keys on it, one of which is for the dorm-room door. Of the remaining two, one looks fairly mailboxey, and the other might very well be to an externally facing door, although it's a little unclear. Also, is that a bottle-opener on the other end of that keychain? Finally, I should mention that I'm incredibly flattered by this particular deduction photo, as our subject appears to be perusing my blog whilst taking the picture.

A few more miscellaneous notes - the computer's shape makes me think gaming PC, as does the cord which appears to facilitate a headset that has an attached microphone. Our subject is fairly neat. The bed is made, the shoes are lined up, and the books/notebooks are stacked. That, plus the blanket on the bed and Christmas lights shifts the balance of probability slightly in the female direction, but then we have the gaming PC, the minimalist key-chain, the shoe size compared to national average (barring any scaling mistakes I made), and the type of shoe shifting it slightly in the male direction. I confess to not being comfortable making a for-sure gender distinction, as the evidence here has more to do with how our subject prefers their room than their gender.

This brings up an interesting point about this science. Utilizing averages to determine probabilistically who a subject is (gender-wise or otherwise) will work ON AVERAGE. But simply knowing that the average male foot is slightly larger will not tell you who a person is, or even that they are male if all you are going on is their shoe-size. It will only tell you where someone lies on a bell-curve, once we decide which bell curve we are on. So be very careful with these types of conclusions. The solution (almost always) is get more data. After all, we cannot make bricks without clay.

I'm very interested to see others' opinions on this one, and I can't wait for someone to point out something I may have missed. Happy sleuthing!

8 comments:

  1. Did you not want to focus on the types of electronics the person has? In the multiple plug socket, the room owner has different types of chargers that can only be used for certain things. There are 2 apple chords, one old and one fairly new based on the ends of them. There's also a gray charger that looks like it could be for a DS. So, I was just wondering if you noticed or didn't want to mention it.

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  2. how come my commenst never show?

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    1. All comments need to be approved by me. That may take awhile depending on how long I am away from my computer.

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  3. I always try to do the deductions before I go and look at what you wrote, so this is what I have:
    - male (shoe size)
    - student in an American dorm room (general look of the room, power sockets, books and notebooks)
    - around 20 (typical student age)
    - sociology student (Ritzer)
    - eco-aware (several bins, not that I was led away by the recycling sign)
    - generally neat and tidy
    - owns an iPhone
    - shares a room with someone (headphones to not distract the roommate; lamp turned up to get more light without switching on the main light in the room and thus distracting the roommate) - for this I'm not so sure, kind of a shot in the dark and that iPhone might as well belong to the hypothetical roommate

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  4. While I agree that the subject is right handed, your reasoning is flawed. The fork is okay but most lefties (myself included) use the mouse like a righty. Basically, a mouse on the left side probably means left handed while a mouse on the right needs more data. But you didn't mention a couple things. 1) the only items to the left of the computer are things being thrown away meaning better access to things she (I believe it is a she) would need on the right. 2) The tea is as far to the right as it can go.

    As to gender, those types of shoes, the (pair of) slipper(s) beside them, and the color of the blanket say female to me as well as the artwork on the tub under the bed.

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    1. Interesting point about the mouse. I shall keep that in mind. Keep up the good work!

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  5. This was really great, Kaden. But can u do the same cool stuff with people? I mean, if someone gives you a person's picture, how much can u deduce?

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